Where-how is going

Looking forward, I think the current situation is based on two factors: energy and AI. Energy can exist by itself. AI cannot. Without enough energy, AI cannot scale, no matter how good the technology becomes. This is one of the reasons why the Gulf tensions matter so much for the market. On one side, we have huge expectations for AI. After all the marketing phase, investors expect AI to solve many time-consuming problems, improve medicine, research and quantitative work. On the other side, governments continue to put pressure on semiconductor companies like AMD, Nvidia, Intel and Micron through regulations and geopolitical decisions. For Europe, energy is still a major variable. Oil prices affect inflation expectations and central bank decisions. Higher energy costs create pressure on the economy, while lower energy costs help growth and improve conditions for technology and semiconductor companies. As I see it, many sectors are currently benefiting from the AI narrative. Without it, we would probably be much closer to stagnation. That’s why the end of the current tensions could create strong moves in both directions. Lower oil prices would support semiconductors, AI services and technology stocks. The market would push higher, money would flow into new sectors, then eventually we would see a correction, followed by a recovery phase. This is not something new. Similar patterns appeared around major turning points in 2014, 2020, 2023 and 2025. So the current market definition is simple: waiting for lower energy prices -> support for semiconductors and AI -> market expansion -> correction -> recovery.