WIG - Looking forward

Trying to answer the question: “Does WIG have an ability to rise in a logarithmic way, or is it just another journey following a COS/SIN curve?”

Since the last worldwide global crisis in 2007, when the WIG index reached not just 3000 zl with a conversion around 1:2.3 USD to PLN but even almost 4000 zl, we have been facing continuous development of our market. The signature moment was in September 2018, when FTSE Russell appended WIG to developed markets. That was a gesture and a sign — a sign of the future.

The Polish market operates in a centralised way, which means that the TOP 3–5 cities attract foreign capital and produce new specialists. The R&D sector is based on creative work in IT, pharmacy, and aerospace. In the background, strong TSL and construction sectors have marked their roles in EU markets. That’s a signal to rise and to linearly gain experience, capital, and investors. It’s not just a road — it’s full structuralisation.

On the WSE (including WIG20), foreign investors — mainly institutional — dominate trading activity, accounting for around 2/3 of turnover, while domestic retail investors have a declining share at roughly 14%. The number of active brokerage accounts is growing, although there is a lack of up-to-date data for WIG20 in 2026. January 2026 brought record equity turnover, reaching 52.9 billion PLN.

Market capitalisation:

The total capitalisation of WIG20 companies exceeds 170 billion USD (e.g. PKN Orlen ~31 billion USD, PKO BP ~26 billion USD — 2025).

What’s included?

We have great examples like LPP and Benefit — they focus on reaching capital and maintaining high working capital, rather than dividing and distributing it for speculation. For example, Dino did that a year ago and now it has about 20–30% less power, with a negative perspective and questionable ethics discussed publicly.

Gaming index?

The Polish market, less than the Czech one, has limited mobility for a gaming index. There are only a few companies, with CDP on a podium-platform, which makes it volatile in a mathematical sense. Most reference points are release dates, trailers, and the “consumer happiness index.” That’s what will indicate CDP performance this and next year.

It’s a good behavioural example — when CDP moves from an average of 240–250 towards 300, oscillating in the 250–300 range, potentially reaching 300–350 during a final release cycle.

Is there a place for TSL?

For sure… no. The Polish TSL sector had an announcement in January 2026 when InPost joined a new capital perspective. Other TSL companies are mostly outside the open market — medium and medium+ companies with Polish structures.

Polish banking system?

It’s a land-Europe system, based on credit fundamentals, with high revenue from currency positions. It’s not easy to predict the future, but it seems that the Polish banking system is developed. We don’t anticipate strong negative oscillations — rather a slow rise or occasional stock rush.

So in the end, it’s not rocket science — it’s a simple, developing stock market that has the ability to generate capital for e-commerce, gaming, and state-owned companies like Orlen or KGHM, which depend on natural resources. These are just symptoms of a “mode”.